Global Warning - A Warning to All

- Debashish Mahapatro
Director
Verve Consulting Pvt. Ltd.

Introduction :
Climate change has now become a part of our everyday lives both in the sense of the effects on the climatic phenomena as well as in terms of the scientific discussions that take place around it together with the reporting on the same. For the uninitiated, the subject under discussion essentially relates to the effects of global warming through the release of Greenhouse gases namely CO2, CH4, N2O, Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Hexafluorocarbons (HFCs) and Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6). The long debate on the implications if any of these has been conclusively resolved by scientists forming part of the IPCC (International Protocol for Climate Change) and the direct correlation between emissions and climate change is now an accepted reality.

In this context, the Kyoto Protocol which was signed in 1997 and has undergone many revisions, assumes huge importance as it ensured that the conscientious developed countries (mainly based in Europe) have agreed to cap their emissions level on a purely voluntary though binding mechanism. However the economic driver of this mechanism must be highlighted as it involves the arbitrage of cheaper emission reduction measures undertaken in developing countries (viz. China, India, Brazil, etc.) with that of more expensive emission cuts in Europe. This has led to a booming trade of what are called carbon credits which essentially reflect the rights to the emission reduction units being handed over to a buyer in these Kyoto protocol signatory countries.

However this trade has not been without its fair share of controversies. China, India and Brazil dominate this trade with about 90% of the supply of CDM based carbon credits originating in these countries in that order and with many different corporates in these countries cashing in on what has been seen by some as a compromise of climate change ethics as the adversaries to this business see this as a way of easing the developed countries collective conscience for years of accretion of emissions by a simple matter of trade. However what most people miss out is the fact that on a global scale no solution to a problem of this magnitude can be perfect and any solution that catalyses decisive action has to be not just supported but lauded as the process of catalysis usually accelerates with time as more and more people wake up to the reality imposed by climate change and its devastating effects. Hence today we find that any event, even the most trivial like the launch of a new car like the Tata Nano immediately has a group of people up in arms over supposed emission issues like greater collective pollution in India due to the fact that this is going to replace lesser emitting vehicles. This in itself is a testimony to the success of the Kyoto protocol as it triggers introspection and mass bargaining for many actions which would have earlier slipped past without any scrutiny.

India finds itself sandwiched in a very strange position in this entire controversy. As a non-Annex B signatory to Kyoto it is morally bound to be conscious of its carbon footprints whereas its own desire to grow implies that there is bound to be greater industrial activity and hence greater emissions. Indias sheer size and scale of growth also poses a question of absolutes in terms of emissions for the country as a whole, even though the per capita emissions of India is among the lowest in the world. These are being put to India to armtwist it into accepting a more rigid mandate in terms of emission reductions though India with the support of other developing countries has been able to delay this event for some more time. The recent Bali meet has now concluded with a decision to agree to negotiate a settlement post Kyoto (which terminates in 20 2) for a balanced approach to reducing emission levels in the global environment.

The battle to fight emissions actually has been played on different platforms as it should.

1. Energy conservation, efficiency improvement and demand side management
2. Alternate energy sources
3. Renewable energy sources
4. Choice of alternate materials leading to replacement of emissions like N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6.
5. Waste management (to prevent generation and emission of CH4)
6. CO2 sequestration, capture and reuse where possible

All of these fields are essentially technology driven and the choice of these is influenced by the respective economics. In this one may mention that the economic drivers have been further tweaked with the introduction of carbon credits trading as well as carbon taxes as in some countries. Current technology alternatives have ranged from the exotic to the esoteric with a few simple alternates also being tried out.
The list of choices for clean/ relatively cleaner sources of power in the context of GHGs although not exhaustive are listed below :
1.Hydel power – This has its own set of issues when it requires displacement and rehabilitation of people
and submergence of ecological structures when large reservoirs are created. Hence the most sustainable forms are run of the river structures without reservoirs and hence mini or micro hydel plants.
2. Solar power – The least adverse impact technology though currently the most expensive in terms of cost of generation from a capital point of view with upto Rs. 12 crores of capital cost per MW of generation
3. Tidel wave energy – Very promising sector but forms of transportation of the energy and easy generation are still very distant realities
4. Energy from waste – Very promising but small in size in terms of overall demand
5. Frozen methane hydrates – supposedly the largest reservoir of energy with natural gas frozen in the polar regions deep below the sea surface but sovereignty issues and a cost and environment friendly approach to unlocking these gigantic reserves has not yet been found
6. Geothermal energy – Unlocking the earths core heat has fascinated many scientists but it is still an experimental reality only
7. Energy from micro-organisms – Again part of the esoteric domain but who knows the future may hold out promise
8. Nuclear – currently fission based with its many pitfalls and high capital cost, though GHG friendly. The future may unlock the potential of fusion in which case, the energy security of the world would surely be well resolved. However no one can hazard a guess as to when it might happen
9. Natural gas- A limited reserve though certainly interesting for the next few years at least
10. Biomass – the easiest renewable source though is limited by production potential and issues of costs of collection and harnessing
11. Wind – Simplest technology, though on the more expensive side with about Rs. 6 crores per MW of generation capacity. Total potential is limited though it is expected to contribute to a significant percentage of world energy demand.

All of these have many different variants in terms of technology raw material, threshold size, etc. so essentially in the future we might actually need to look at a combination of the same to have an efficient solution.

It may be noted that alternative energy is considered to be capital intensive and hence presents hurdles to developing countries. However the concept of subsidies as well as incentives for clean generation ensures that in the long run some of the barriers are eliminated. This also implies that the developed countries can share technology as well as incentivise research in these areas even in developing countries which have an abundance of wind, hydel and solar power resources as well as some degree of biomass. However research in these areas is still in varying stages of development.

Another related activity is carbon sequestration or carbon capture through afforestation as well as through technology driven carbon storage which may be reused in a few industries as required. One interesting area which has been explored in India is the production of petroleum products from plastics. This while theoretically possible has still not been mastered though every once in a while there are claims and counter claims as it would in one stroke fell 2 evils; pollution of the ground as well as pollution of the atmosphere.

Hence it devolves onto all of us to maintain energy conservation measures while also judiciously using technology to maintain the very delicate balance of nature and its resources.

Ways forward :
1. Indian companies need to proactively contemplate newer technology which is energy efficient and use the benefits of the CDM trading mechanism to bring about investments
2. Renewable energy generation needs to be prioritized through trading benefits as well as through govt. incentives which create an indigenous awareness in India for the same.
3. The new post Kyoto mechanism which is expected to kick in post 2012 is also expected to define a few new roadmaps for managing emissions globally and maybe even specifically India.

The charts below represents some of the statistics related to CDM in India.